El Niño Strengthens as South Sudan Faces Drought and Flooding Risks
Credit: DRC
Strengthening El Niño conditions are contributing to abnormal heat and worsening dry conditions across parts of East Africa, while South Sudan continues to face a combination of drought and flooding risks, according to the latest FEWS NET Global Weather Hazards Summary.
The outlook, covering Aug. 27 to Sept. 2, 2026, says dryness persists across much of Eastern Africa, with severe rainfall deficits over the past 90 days leading to the expansion of drought conditions across southern South Sudan and parts of Ethiopia.
At the same time, inundation in the Sudd wetlands of South Sudan persists, highlighting the country’s contrasting weather conditions, with some areas experiencing excessive water while others face prolonged rainfall shortages.
FEWS NET reported scattered heavy rainfall during the past week in cross-border areas linking southeastern Sudan and northeastern South Sudan, as well as in central Uganda and southwestern South Sudan.
Most of these areas recorded more than 50 millimeters of rainfall over seven days. Rainfall surpluses were also reported in parts of eastern South Sudan and the Upper Nile State, where continued rainfall has maintained wetter-than-average conditions.
However, rainfall deficits were widespread across northern South Sudan, with the region among areas experiencing significant shortages over the past week and month.
The weather outlook indicates that most of the region is likely to receive below-average rainfall during the coming week.
Between 25 and 75 mm of rainfall is expected in parts of far western South Sudan, while progressively drier conditions are forecast across eastern South Sudan. FEWS NET also says the probability of below-average rainfall is high across much of South Sudan.
The combination of prolonged rainfall deficits and rising temperatures could place additional pressure on vegetation, water availability and agricultural activities in areas already affected by dry conditions.
Abnormally hot conditions are also forecast across parts of South Sudan during the outlook period, alongside northern Algeria, parts of Sudan, northwestern and eastern Ethiopia and western Eritrea.
FEWS NET said the global weather outlook reflects current weather and climate information, including short- and medium-range forecasts and their potential effects on crops and pasture. It cautioned that the product does not represent long-range seasonal climate forecasts or current or projected food-security conditions.
