FAO Warns of Famine Risk in Four South Sudan Counties

Four counties in South Sudan face a risk of famine under plausible worst-case conditions as escalating violence, population displacement, poor rainfall and exceptionally high food prices continue to worsen the country’s food security situation, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said.

In its GIEWS Country Brief released Sept. 7, the FAO said about 7.8 million people, representing 55% of South Sudan’s population, were estimated to face Crisis-level acute food insecurity or worse during the April-July 2026 lean season.

The most severe levels of acute food insecurity were reported in Unity, Jonglei and Upper Nile states, where about 65% of the population was estimated to be affected.

About 73,000 people were estimated to be facing IPC Phase 5, or Catastrophe, levels of acute food insecurity, including about 24,000 people in Upper Nile State and 49,000 in Jonglei State.

The latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification analysis identified a risk of famine in Luakpiny/Nasir and Ulang counties in Upper Nile State, and Nyirol and Akobo counties in Jonglei State, under plausible worst-case conditions.

The FAO said heightened violence since late 2025 has undermined livelihoods, disrupted food trade and market activities and triggered large-scale population displacement, particularly in Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity states.

The worsening food security situation is also being driven by persistent macroeconomic challenges, soaring fuel prices caused by supply-chain disruptions linked to the Middle East crisis, currency weakness and high inflation, as well as the lingering effects of consecutive years of widespread flooding on livelihoods.

The agency also warned that dry and erratic weather conditions are raising concerns about South Sudan’s 2026 cereal production.

In southern agricultural areas, harvesting of first-season maize and sorghum crops was completed in August. However, frequent and prolonged dry spells during the first growing season affected crop establishment and development, resulting in expectations of below-average cereal production.

Planting of second-season crops, which are expected to be harvested in late 2026 and early 2027, is expected to conclude in September.

In central and northern cropping areas, harvesting of short-cycle sorghum and maize crops has begun and is expected to continue through October, while long-cycle sorghum crops will be harvested from November 2026 through January 2027.

The FAO said rainfall in central and northern areas has so far been below average, adversely affecting vegetation and crop conditions in several agricultural areas.

Weather forecasts indicate a high likelihood of below-average rainfall in September. In southern areas, however, rainfall is expected to shift to above-average levels between October and December, which could support the development of second-season crops and improve yields.

In central and northern areas, continued rainfall deficits in September are expected to further constrain crop development and increase the risk of significant production shortfalls.

Insecurity has also disrupted agricultural activities in some areas and is likely to contribute to localized crop production losses.

The FAO said flood-related crop losses are expected to be limited because flooding caused by river overflows has been less extensive than in recent years, while below-average rainfall has reduced the occurrence of rainfall-induced floods.

Meanwhile, cereal prices remain at exceptionally high levels, adding pressure on households already struggling with food insecurity.

In Juba, sorghum prices, which are primarily sourced from domestic production, remained at record levels between March and June 2026. During the same period, prices of maize and wheat flour, which are largely imported from neighboring Uganda, increased by 20% to 25%, reaching new record highs.

The FAO attributed the rise in imported cereal prices partly to the depreciation of the South Sudanese pound on the parallel market and a 30% to 35% increase in diesel fuel prices between March and June.

Higher fuel and import costs have contributed to rising food prices, while persistent macroeconomic challenges, high inflation and currency weakness continue to undermine households’ purchasing power.

The FAO warned that the combination of conflict, displacement, unfavorable weather conditions, weak livelihoods, high inflation and soaring food and fuel prices continues to pose a serious threat to food security across South Sudan, with the greatest risks concentrated in the conflict-affected areas of Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity states.