Conflict, poor rains to deepen Sudan food crisis, with famine risk through January

Credit: Medair

Conflict, deteriorating economic conditions and poor rainfall are expected to keep acute food insecurity at emergency levels across large parts of Sudan through January, with a credible risk of famine in several areas, according to a new Food Security Outlook Update by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network.

FEWS NET said Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions are expected to remain widespread through the peak of the lean season in August and September across much of Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan and Blue Nile. The assessment is based on information available as of Aug. 31, 2026.

Some populations are expected to face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in parts of North Darfur, South Kordofan and North Kordofan, as well as among some internally displaced people in Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan.

FEWS NET said humanitarian food assistance is preventing worse outcomes in some areas where access remains possible, including Tawila camp, Al Lait and At Taweisha in North Darfur; As Sunta and Buram in South Darfur; Jebal Marrahs in Central Darfur; and Um Durein and Delami in South Kordofan. However, less than 20% of the population estimated by FEWS NET to be in need is receiving food assistance.

The outlook is expected to remain severe during the October-to-January harvest period. FEWS NET said conflict disruptions to farming, combined with El Niño-driven below-average rainfall and high temperatures, are likely to leave harvests marginal in areas along active front lines. Elsewhere in western Sudan, insecurity and poor rainfall are expected to contribute to poor harvests and persistently high food prices, resulting in widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions.

The agency warned that there is a credible risk of famine through January in seven areas of northwestern and central North Darfur, as well as Dilling and Kadugli in South Kordofan and surrounding rural areas.

Large to extreme food consumption deficits are already widespread, alongside high levels of acute malnutrition. FEWS NET said famine could occur if conflict escalates or severe sieges resume and isolate populations for prolonged periods, particularly when combined with marginal or failed harvests.

Fighting intensified in August in major frontline areas of Greater Kordofan, North and West Darfur and Blue Nile, causing further displacement and disrupting livelihoods, trade and access to essential services. Drone attacks have also continued to damage infrastructure and disrupt commercial and humanitarian flows.

Rainfall has compounded the crisis. FEWS NET said the June-August period was the driest on record in Sudan, with severe rainfall deficits in parts of North Darfur and North Kordofan. Late and erratic rains have delayed planting and crop development, while persistent moisture stress has caused crops to wilt in some areas.

Food prices have also continued to rise. The Sudanese pound fell to a new low of 6,400 pounds per U.S. dollar on the parallel market in late August, while fuel prices increased sharply. Sorghum and millet prices rose by 17% to 24% between June and July and were 37% to 72% higher than a year earlier, according to FEWS NET.

The worsening food crisis is occurring alongside major health and nutrition concerns. A renewed cholera and dengue outbreak has emerged in Khartoum amid deteriorating sanitation, contaminated water sources and the collapse of basic services. In West Kordofan, a cholera outbreak in Foga remained severe, with 833 cases, 753 recoveries and 84 deaths recorded by the end of July.

Nutrition indicators are particularly alarming in parts of Darfur. FEWS NET reported that 12 of 26 recently validated SMART surveys recorded Global Acute Malnutrition rates above the 15% emergency threshold. In West Darfur’s Beida and East Darfur’s Abu Karinka, GAM among children aged 6 to 59 months reached 26.6% and 23.9%, respectively.

Humanitarian assistance remains severely constrained by insecurity, access challenges and funding shortages. The World Food Programme reached 3.2 million people with food and cash assistance in July, but that represented less than 20% of FEWS NET’s estimated population in need. FEWS NET warned that funding shortfalls could lead to reductions in assistance, potentially leaving an additional 1.5 million people without aid by the end of the year.

In Greater Darfur, Emergency conditions are expected to persist through January, with some populations in parts of North Darfur likely to face Catastrophe. Continued fighting and displacement are expected to further disrupt agricultural production, livelihoods and humanitarian access.

In Greater Kordofan, Emergency conditions are also projected to continue through January, particularly around El Obeid, Dilling, Kadugli and surrounding rural areas. Some internally displaced populations could face Catastrophe if fighting intensifies and access to food, markets and humanitarian assistance deteriorates further.

FEWS NET said the situation could deteriorate significantly if fighting expands, trade routes are cut and humanitarian access is further restricted. In parts of North Darfur and around Dilling and Kadugli, a combination of intensified conflict, displacement, poor harvests and worsening access could push affected populations into famine conditions.

The assessment concludes that Sudan’s food security outlook through January 2027 will remain highly dependent on the trajectory of conflict, rainfall, market conditions and the ability of humanitarian agencies to maintain access and assistance to vulnerable populations.