Conflict, Poor Rains Threaten Sudan’s Food Security During Harvest: FEWS NET

Credit: UN News

Conflict and below-average rainfall are expected to drive widespread emergency levels of food insecurity across Sudan through January 2027, with millions facing worsening hunger and a credible risk of famine in parts of Darfur and Kordofan, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network said.

In its August 2026 Food Security Outlook Update, FEWS NET warned that continued fighting, displacement, rising food and fuel prices and declining purchasing power would keep millions of people in severe food insecurity during the October-January harvest period.

The analysis, based on information available through Aug. 31, projects that Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions will remain widespread across Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan and parts of Blue Nile State. Some populations are expected to face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), the most severe level of food insecurity.

FEWS NET identified parts of North Darfur, including Um Baru, Kernoi and At-Tiné, as well as Dilling and Kadugli in South Kordofan and surrounding rural areas, among the areas at greatest risk.

The report said there is a credible risk of famine through January in seven areas of northwestern and central North Darfur, Dilling and Kadugli and nearby rural areas of South Kordofan.

“Large to extreme food consumption deficits are already widespread alongside high acute malnutrition,” FEWS NET said, warning that intensified conflict, prolonged sieges and marginal harvests could push affected populations into famine.

The outlook comes as Sudan’s rainy season has performed poorly. FEWS NET said June-August rainfall was the driest on historical record in parts of the country, with severe rainfall deficits in North Darfur and North Kordofan.

Late and erratic rains have delayed planting and crop development, while high temperatures and persistent moisture stress have damaged crops in several areas. Poor pasture and water conditions are also expected to force pastoralists into earlier-than-usual livestock migration.

The combination of conflict and weather shocks is expected to severely disrupt agricultural production during the harvest season. In frontline areas, harvests are likely to be marginal at best, while insecurity and high prices will sustain Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in other parts of western Sudan.

Food prices continued to rise in July, driven by supply disruptions, higher transport costs, currency depreciation and expectations of a poor harvest. Sorghum and millet prices rose by 17% to 24% between June and July and were 37% to 72% higher than in July 2025.

The Sudanese pound depreciated to 6,400 pounds per U.S. dollar on the parallel market in late August, while fuel prices increased by 131% year-on-year in July on the regular market, further increasing the cost of transporting food and other essential goods.

The report also highlighted worsening health and nutrition conditions. A renewed cholera and dengue fever outbreak in Khartoum has been linked to deteriorating sanitation, contaminated water sources and the collapse of basic services.

In West Kordofan, the cholera outbreak in Foga remained severe, with 833 cases, 753 recoveries and 84 deaths recorded by the end of July.

FEWS NET said 12 of 26 recently validated nutrition surveys recorded global acute malnutrition rates above the emergency threshold of 15%. The highest rates were reported in parts of Darfur, Kassala and Gedaref.

Humanitarian assistance continues to prevent worse outcomes in some areas, but access remains limited. The World Food Programme reached 3.2 million people with food and cash assistance in July, representing less than 20% of FEWS NET’s estimated population in need.

In areas with more consistent humanitarian access, assistance reached more than 25% of the population, although food rations covered only 50% to 70% of needs in June and July.

FEWS NET warned that funding shortages could further undermine humanitarian operations. Reductions in cash assistance after September and in-kind assistance after October could leave an additional 1.5 million people without aid by the end of the year.

The agency said the opening of the At-Tiné border crossing had allowed assistance to reach 22,000 people in Um Baru, Kernoi and At-Tiné for the first time since March. However, ongoing insecurity and seasonal access constraints continue to limit the scale of relief operations.

FEWS NET projected that Emergency conditions would persist through January in conflict-affected parts of Darfur and Kordofan. In calmer areas, the harvest could provide some relief through food stocks and agricultural labor income, but below-average production and high prices are expected to limit improvements.

The report warned that renewed sieges, expanded fighting, intensified drone strikes and further disruption of trade and humanitarian access could push additional populations beyond famine thresholds.