Dual Climate Threat Emerges as Greater Horn Faces Drought, Flood Risk
Credit: ICPAC
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development has warned that the Greater Horn of Africa is likely to experience two sharply contrasting climate conditions during the remainder of 2026, with prolonged dry conditions expected in the north before heavy rains arrive across equatorial and southern parts of the region later in the year.
According to the regional climate outlook, July to September is expected to bring significantly below-average rainfall and warmer-than-normal temperatures across northern parts of the Greater Horn. Countries likely to be affected include Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and parts of Kenya.
IGAD said the dry conditions could intensify pressure on water resources, agriculture, livestock production and livelihoods, particularly in communities that rely on rain-fed farming and pastoralism.
However, the climate outlook indicates a shift later in the year, with wetter-than-normal conditions expected during the October to December rainy season across much of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Somalia, Tanzania and parts of Ethiopia.
The anticipated rains are expected to improve agricultural production, replenish water sources and restore rangelands. At the same time, IGAD cautioned that the increased rainfall could trigger flooding, flash floods and landslides in low-lying and other vulnerable areas.
The regional bloc said the long-range forecast is intended to support governments, humanitarian agencies and communities in taking early preparedness and readiness measures ahead of the October–December rainy season.
IGAD advised users to complement the seasonal outlook with monthly and weekly forecasts issued by its climate prediction centre and national meteorological and hydrological services. The outlook will be updated in July, while a more comprehensive regional forecast is expected to be released during the 74th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF74) in August 2026.
