South Sudan warns of possible flooding as Lake Victoria water levels rise
By Patricia John Kenyi
South Sudan is preparing for possible severe riverine flooding after Uganda warned of rising water levels in Lake Victoria that could result in increased water releases downstream through the Nile River.
The Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation said the expected increase in Nile flows could threaten communities along the river, including parts of Juba and other low-lying areas, potentially damaging homes, infrastructure, property and livelihoods.
The warning follows hydrological information received from Uganda’s Ministry of Water and Environment, as well as forecasts from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre and other regional forecasting systems.
The ministry said above-normal rainfall is expected across the Lake Victoria basin, raising concerns that the lake could reach exceptionally high levels and lead to increased downstream flows.
“Heavy water releases downstream will lead to severe riverine flooding in South Sudan, significantly threatening Juba City and surrounding low-lying areas,” the ministry said.
Authorities said river measurements along some sections of the Nile remain below flood-alert levels, but warned that conditions could change rapidly once higher flows move downstream.
The ministry urged communities living along riverbanks to remain on high alert and prepare for possible relocation to higher ground. Local authorities were also encouraged to activate emergency flood task forces to monitor dikes and other flood-control infrastructure and strengthen preparedness measures.
Recommended measures include strengthening early-warning and water-level monitoring systems, inspecting and reinforcing dikes, and protecting critical water infrastructure, water yards and boreholes.
Uganda’s Ministry of Water and Environment has projected above-normal rainfall during the September-December 2026 season, particularly around the Lake Victoria basin.
A recent scientific study involving hydrologists from South Sudan and Uganda found that water movement between Lake Victoria and the Sudd is more complex and slower than previously assumed. The study also highlighted the role of wetlands and lakes in storing and releasing water over time.
South Sudan’s water ministry stressed that current river conditions should not be interpreted as an absence of flood risk, saying higher flows from upstream could quickly change conditions.
The ministry said it will present a memorandum on the anticipated flood risk to the National Council of Ministers through the economic cluster for consideration and possible action.
It will continue monitoring water levels in coordination with Ugandan authorities and provide further updates as new hydrological information becomes available.
South Sudan and Uganda have also strengthened cooperation on White Nile flow management. In June 2026, the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding facilitated by the Nile Basin Initiative covering the exchange of hydrological information, notification of significant flow-management measures and coordination during floods and other extreme events.
The latest warning is intended as an early preparedness measure to help reduce potential loss of life and damage if increased Nile flows reach vulnerable communities downstream.
