Food Crisis to Persist in Uganda’s Karamoja Region, Refugees Face Lean-Season Deterioration
Food insecurity is expected to persist across Uganda’s northeastern Karamoja region through January 2027, while refugees in the country’s settlements are likely to face worsening conditions during the lean season, according to a new Food Security Outlook update by FEWS NET.
The report projects that all nine districts in Karamoja will remain in Crisis, or Phase 3 of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, with some of the worst-affected households potentially facing Emergency conditions, or Phase 4.
The situation is being driven by severely below-average rainfall between June and September, which has caused crop losses estimated at between 50% and 75%, reduced pasture and water availability, and weakened opportunities for agricultural and herding work. Low livestock ownership has further limited households’ ability to cope with the shocks.
FEWS NET said rainfall between October and November is expected to improve pasture and water availability and support some off-season cultivation. However, the improved rains are unlikely to offset the losses suffered during the main agricultural season.
Many households are expected to rely on crisis coping strategies, including selling productive assets, withdrawing children from school and delaying or foregoing medical care.
Refugees are also expected to face increasing pressure as food assistance and household stocks decline. Most refugee settlements in northern Uganda are projected to remain in Crisis through January, while settlements in the south are expected to remain Stressed, or Phase 2, through September before deteriorating to Crisis between October and January.
The report attributed the expected deterioration to the depletion of first-season food stocks, rising food prices and refugees’ limited access to land and income-generating opportunities. High dependence on markets is expected to further expose refugee households to price increases.
As of August, only about 33% of refugees were receiving some form of assistance. FEWS NET warned that food assistance could be reduced or discontinued after December because of funding shortfalls, increasing the risk of further deterioration.
Above-average rainfall forecast for October and November could also bring flooding to refugee settlements, including Palorinya, Adjumani and Nakivale. Such flooding could disrupt roads, delay food deliveries and increase the risk of waterborne and mosquito-borne diseases.
The Ugandan government has provided emergency food assistance in Karamoja, distributing 20 kilograms of maize flour and 10 kilograms of beans per household. By mid-to-late August, the assistance had reached about 210,000 households, or approximately 1.05 million people, across the region’s nine districts.
FEWS NET said the assistance provided roughly 27% of a household’s minimum daily caloric needs for one month. The government was expected to distribute an additional 9.4 million kilograms of food in September.
The World Food Programme was also expected to provide 100% of minimum monthly caloric needs to about 70,000 people in Karamoja between September and October.
In Uganda’s bimodal rainfall areas, FEWS NET projected that Stressed conditions would persist through January, although some of the worst-affected households could face Crisis. Harvests are expected to be close to average overall but could be affected by dry spells and flooding.
